Home Inventory REMAINS Down 25% Year-Over-Year
(This is a printable version)
September 2017 market activity continued the trend of LOW INVENTORY with the Average number of Active Listings Down (24.8%) at the beginning of September.
2017 Y-T-D = 316
2016 Y-T-D = 412 ... 96 fewer homes on average have been available at the beginning of the month in 2017
The number of New Listings through September 2017 is DOWN (6%) compared to the same period in 2016
2017 Y-T-D = 1,672
2016
Y-T-D = 1,822
150 fewer New Listings in 2017
3% more Contracts were written through September 2017.
2017 Y-T-D = 1308
2016
Y-T-D = 1,299
6% more Closings occurred through September 2017.
2017 Y-T-D = 1,254
2016
Y-T-D = 1,220
HAVE YOU EVER WONDERED IF YOU SOLD YOUR CURRENT HOME HOW MUCH YOU COULD PURCHASE IN ANOTHER COMMUNITY?
To show a "Relative Value from community to community" in the following graphs we use a 2,985 sf home in PORTOLA HILLS that has been remodeled and listed at $990,000 as a BENCHMARK in the graphs below that show the comparisons to CLOSINGS in select communities.
As seen in the graph below the 2,985 sf $990,000 Portola Hills Benchmark home costs as much as a 2,250 sf home in Baker Ranch and is about $200,000 less expensive than a 3,000 sf Baker Ranch home.
The 3,000 sf Portola Hills home fits neatly at the bottom of the square foot range and about $60,000 to $75,000 below the value line of homes in Coto de Caza that Closed this year between $1,000,000 and $2,000,000. Someone could downsize comfortably from Coto to Portola Hills
The 3,000 sf Portola Hills home fits neatly at the bottom of the square foot range and about $60,000 to $75,000 below the value line of homes in Coto de Caza that Closed this year between $1,000,000 and $2,000,000. Someone could downsize comfortably from Coto to Portola Hills
The Portola Hills home sits neatly on the Foothill Ranch trend line. This indicates the two communities have very similar square foot valuations. Based on this graph, most Foothill Ranch homes that have closed so far in 2017 are smaller in size.
Ladera Ranch small SFR's (1,500 to 3,000 sf) closing prices were slightly higher than Portola Hills. In this scenario someone could conceivably sell a 2400 sf home in Ladera Ranch and get a 30% larger home in Portola Hills.
Growing families might enjoy the extra space without additional expense
Ladera Ranch larger SFR's (3,001 to 4,600 sf) starting value line is at the Portola Hills price per square foot but quickly increase significantly per square foot. This is indicative of the multiple product types spread around Ladera Ranch, especially the high-end homes in the gated community of Covenant Hills.
It should not surprise anyone that homes in Newport Beach are much more expensive than the other markets. Someone downsizing from Portola would get half as much square footage for the same price. On the bright side, someone could sell 1,500 square feet in Newport and buy 3,000 sf in Portola Hills.
OK, this is the caveat in this entire comparison!!! The home we have been using is in Portola Hills, is 2,985 sf with a list price of $990,000.
Even though the interior has been completely remodeled it appears to be OVER PRICED! Looking at the closed trend line this square footage should close at $925,000.
Relative to other homes in Portola Hills. Without comparing location, view or condition to the other homes that closed, based solely on the Value Trend Line this home should close at $925,000; which is $65,000 less than asking price.
Selling the Portola Hills home and downsizing to a Portola Springs Condo might make sense.
Selling one of the newer SFR homes in Portola Springs would allow anyone to buy a home in Portola Hills and have a lot of cash in the bank without sacrificing square footage.
Swapping a Portola Hills home for Stonegate Condo is downsizing without financial benefit.
Condos in Turtle Rock are more expensive per square foot than the Portola Hills Homes. This is a good opportunity for a family to move up in size by moving to Portola Hills.
As with Newport Beach, the Turtle Rock SFR homes are more expensive per square foot than Portola Hills. The perspective would be a financially benificial Downsize to Portola Hills or a crisp Move-up to Turtle Rock.
Woodbridge Condos are much more expensive per square foot than Portola Hills. Much more square footage is affordable in Portola Hills for the same money.
As with Newport Beach and Turtle Rock, homes in Woodbridge are much more expensive per square foot than Portola Hills and other markets segments.
Following the values of Newport Beach and other Primary Irvine locations WestPark is a more expensive location to live per square foot.
The graphs used above are found as the last page showing current closing in our standard reports for following neighborhoods. Each of these reports can be found in the links below. Each is a full report for the specific neighborhood:
We have data on about 32 neighborhoods can develop a report for any neighborhood in California.
Next Report:
We anticipate this could make it harder for buyers to qualify.
Translation:
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