Home Inventory REMAINS Down 25% Year-Over-Year

2017 Q-3 Market Activity through September 30, 2017

(This is a printable version)


September 2017 market activity continued the trend of LOW INVENTORY with the Average number of Active Listings Down (24.8%) at the beginning of September.

2017 Y-T-D = 316
2016 Y-T-D = 412 ... 96 fewer homes on average have been available at the beginning of the month in 2017


Fewer NEW LISTINGS Offered:

The number of New Listings through September 2017 is DOWN (6%) compared to the same period in 2016

2017 Y-T-D = 1,672
2016 Y-T-D = 1,822

150 fewer New Listings in 2017




3% more Contracts were written through September 2017.

2017 Y-T-D = 1308
2016 Y-T-D = 1,299


CLOSINGS Up in 2017:

6% more Closings occurred through September 2017.

2017 Y-T-D = 1,254
2016 Y-T-D = 1,220



?? What is Your Move-up or Downsize potential ??


To show a "Relative Value from community to community" in the following graphs we use a 2,985 sf home in PORTOLA HILLS that has been remodeled and listed at $990,000 as a BENCHMARK in the graphs below that show the comparisons to CLOSINGS in select communities.

1. BAKER RANCH in Lake Forest

As seen in the graph below the 2,985 sf $990,000 Portola Hills Benchmark home costs as much as a 2,250 sf home in Baker Ranch and is about $200,000 less expensive than a 3,000 sf Baker Ranch home.

2. COTO de CAZA ~ $1,000,000 TO $2,000,000

The 3,000 sf Portola Hills home fits neatly at the bottom of the square foot range and about $60,000 to $75,000 below the value line of homes in Coto de Caza that Closed this year between $1,000,000 and $2,000,000. Someone could downsize comfortably from Coto to Portola Hills

3. COTO de CAZA ~ $600,000 TO $990,000

The 3,000 sf Portola Hills home fits neatly at the bottom of the square foot range and about $60,000 to $75,000 below the value line of homes in Coto de Caza that Closed this year between $1,000,000 and $2,000,000. Someone could downsize comfortably from Coto to Portola Hills


The Portola Hills home sits neatly on the Foothill Ranch trend line. This indicates the two communities have very similar square foot valuations. Based on this graph, most Foothill Ranch homes that have closed so far in 2017 are smaller in size.

5. LADERA RANCH ~ SFR 1500 TO 3000 SF

Ladera Ranch small SFR's (1,500 to 3,000 sf) closing prices were slightly higher than Portola Hills. In this scenario someone could conceivably sell a 2400 sf home in Ladera Ranch and get a 30% larger home in Portola Hills.

Growing families might enjoy the extra space without additional expense

6. LADERA RANCH ~ SFR 3001 TO 4600 SF

Ladera Ranch larger SFR's (3,001 to 4,600 sf) starting value line is at the Portola Hills price per square foot but quickly increase significantly per square foot. This is indicative of the multiple product types spread around Ladera Ranch, especially the high-end homes in the gated community of Covenant Hills.

7. NEWPORT BEACH / West Bluff & SAH ~ SFR 1500 TO 4200 SF

It should not surprise anyone that homes in Newport Beach are much more expensive than the other markets. Someone downsizing from Portola would get half as much square footage for the same price. On the bright side, someone could sell 1,500 square feet in Newport and buy 3,000 sf in Portola Hills.

8. PORTOLA HILLS SFR ~ 1500 TO 4200 SF

OK, this is the caveat in this entire comparison!!! The home we have been using is in Portola Hills, is 2,985 sf with a list price of $990,000.

Even though the interior has been completely remodeled it appears to be OVER PRICED! Looking at the closed trend line this square footage should close at $925,000.

Relative to other homes in Portola Hills. Without comparing location, view or condition to the other homes that closed, based solely on the Value Trend Line this home should close at $925,000; which is $65,000 less than asking price.

9. PORTOLA SPRINGS Condos ~ 1500 TO 3000 SF

Selling the Portola Hills home and downsizing to a Portola Springs Condo might make sense.

10. PORTOLA SPRINGS SFR ~ 1500 TO 5,000 SF

Selling one of the newer SFR homes in Portola Springs would allow anyone to buy a home in Portola Hills and have a lot of cash in the bank without sacrificing square footage.

11. STONEGATE Condos ~ 1500 SF & Larger

Swapping a Portola Hills home for Stonegate Condo is downsizing without financial benefit.

12. TURTLE ROCK Condos ~ 1500 SF & Larger

Condos in Turtle Rock are more expensive per square foot than the Portola Hills Homes. This is a good opportunity for a family to move up in size by moving to Portola Hills.

13. TURTLE ROCK SFR ~ 1500 SF & Larger

As with Newport Beach, the Turtle Rock SFR homes are more expensive per square foot than Portola Hills. The perspective would be a financially benificial Downsize to Portola Hills or a crisp Move-up to Turtle Rock.

14. WOODBRIDGE Condos ~ 1400 SF & Larger

Woodbridge Condos are much more expensive per square foot than Portola Hills. Much more square footage is affordable in Portola Hills for the same money.

15. WOODBRIDGE SFR ~ 1500 SF & Larger

As with Newport Beach and Turtle Rock, homes in Woodbridge are much more expensive per square foot than Portola Hills and other markets segments.

16. WESTPARK SFR ~ 919 SF TO 3500 sf

Following the values of Newport Beach and other Primary Irvine locations WestPark is a more expensive location to live per square foot.


The graphs used above are found as the last page showing current closing in our standard reports for following neighborhoods. Each of these reports can be found in the links below. Each is a full report for the specific neighborhood:


CLICK on each link to review a community:

  1. Newport - West Bluff / SAH SFR          Single Family Residential (SFR) 
  2. Irvine - Turtle Rock.........SFR             1500 sf  & larger 
  3. Irvine - Turtle Rock.........Condo        1100 sf & larger
  4. Irvine - Woodbridge........SFR             1500 sf & larger
  5. Irvine - Woodbridge........Condo        1400 sf & larger
  6. Irvine - WestPark............SFR             900 to 3200 sf
  7. Irvine - StoneGate...........Condos      1500 sf & larger
  8. Irvine - Portola Springs....SFR            1500 sf & larger
  9. Irvine - Portola Springs....Condo       1500 - 3000 sf
  10. Foothill Ranch.................SFR            1500 sf & larger
  11. Portola Hills....................SFR            1500 sf & larger
  12. Coto de Caza...................SFR             $600,000 to $999,000
  13. Coto de Caza...................SFR             $1,000,000 to $2,000,000
  14. Ladera Ranch .................Condo        1100 to 1800 sf
  15. Ladera Ranch..................Condo        1801 sf & larger
  16. Ladera Ranch..................SFR             1500 to 3000 sf
  17. Ladera Ranch..................SFR             3001 to 4650 sf



We have data on about 32 neighborhoods can develop a report for any neighborhood in California.



Next Report:

The next report will be our 2017 full year wrap up and some early predictions for 2018.  Hopefully it will be out by January 15, 2018.

One thing all buyers and sellers should expect is rising interest rates. 

We anticipate this could make it harder for buyers to qualify.  


Contact: Joe Richter  949 769-2000
949 677-7722 (cell & text)

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